Elliott Waves And Moving Averages

• Elliott Wave analyzes recurring long-term price movements
• It looks at two phases: the motive phase and the corrective phase
• It’s usually used to spot price waves

Understanding Elliott Waves With Moving Averages

Are you sometimes confused by how the price moves continuously up and down? Or perhaps you wonder whether there is a method that allows you to analyze them?

It may seem that the price movements up and down are random. But not to traders using the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) for analyzing price charts… Because the Elliott Wave explains how the price moves in sync with market psychology.

This article explains how to understand moving averages plus how Elliott Waves and moving averages work together. Moreover, it also shares how traders can use a simple method based on moving averages to simplify their wave analysis.

Traders will understand how moving averages work, how to combine Elliott Waves with moving averages, and how to do EW analysis with moving averages (ew moving average).

What Is The Elliott Wave Theory?

The Elliott Wave Theory is a method for analysts to understand the price movements on the price charts. It is a form of technical analysis.

Traders can use the Elliott Waves to understand the price patterns behind the price movements. Price moves in waves and cycles which are based on investor psychology.

Once you understand these price patterns, then you will be able to:

• Identify them on the price chart and use them for making forecasts.
• Use these predictions to focus on the trading opportunities that offer the best edge.
• Better understand the price charts and their movements.

The waves or cycles are based on optimism (bulls) and pessimism (bears) in the price charts. Both bulls and bears can see price move in two distinct phases:

• Motive phase:
  Also known as momentum, impulse, or impulsive price swing.
  • The impulsive price swing is with the trend move – up or down.
  • Impulsive price action is subdivided into 5 waves (12345) to a lower degree.
  • Waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive.
  • Waves 2 and 4 are corrective.
• Corrective phase:
  Also known as a correction, retrace, pullback, or corrective price swing.
  • The corrective price swing is a counter-trend move – up or down.
  • Corrective price action is subdivided into 3 waves (ABC) to a lower degree.
  • Waves A and C are impulsive or corrective.
  • Wave B is corrective.

These motive and corrective phases occur on all time frames, instruments, and across all time periods (in the past and now).

The 5 motive and 3 corrective waves are part of a higher degree as well. They could form a wave 1 and wave 2 on the higher time frames – see image below. This is Elliott Waves explained in its simplest form.

From R.N. Elliott’s essay, “The Basis of the Wave Principle”, October 1940.

What Are The Pros And Cons Of Elliott Wave Theory?

There are many advantages of using the Elliott Wave Theory but also some drawbacks. Let’s start with the positives:

• Knowing and spotting price swings:
  Traders can analyze price charts and estimate the current Elliott Wave patterns. Based on this wave analysis, they can then evaluate the character, direction, and length of:
  • Previous price swings.
  • The current price swing.
  • The next price swing.
  • Future price swings.

• Seeing the big picture:
  Traders can understand the price charts and understand the ‘story’ of price in more detail. They can also understand how the story is developing on multiple time frames and how those time frames connect.
• Improving your trading:
  Traders can analyze which trading ideas have better probabilities and which ones have worse odds:
  • A short signal from your trading system when the price patterns are showing a bearish ABC pattern in a bullish wave 2 might be a bad idea.
  • But a long signal in such a case would be good.
• Using the rules and guidelines:
  There are rules and guidelines available that make it easier to understand the Elliott Wave Theory. With the help of the Elliott Wave rules and guidelines, traders can get guidance from past examples and improve their ability to analyse waves correctly.
  • There are 3 rules with a long list of guidelines. Let’s summarize the 3 main rules as the guidelines are outside of the scope of today’s article:
  • Rule 1: wave 3 may never be the shortest.
  • Rule 2: wave 2 may not break the starting point of wave 1.
  • Rule 3: wave 4 may not enter the same price zone as wave 1.
• Learning waves is easier with price swings:
  The main tool for analyzing wave patterns is price swings. Once you are able to recognize price swings, then you are in a much better position to see wave patterns.
  • The best way to learn how to trade waves is to take it step by step.
  • First, learn price swings and price patterns.
  • Then focus on translating those price swings into waves.
  • Then start using the waves for trading ideas.

The benefits certainly outweigh the disadvantages.

The main drawback is the difficulty for traders to analyze the price waves correctly. Almost all traders will make errors after starting. The process certainly takes time to learn and master.

The other disadvantage is that many different scenarios are possible with each and every price swing. Some traders might be annoyed with the uncertainty that the wave patterns create.

Both problems can be solved by simplifying the process. This can be done by using moving averages, which is what is explained in the next paragraph.

Of course, traders should also understand that using wave patterns requires some experience first. Just like learning any skill.

But using the moving averages will:

• Reduce the guesswork.
• Make the wave analysis more rules-based.
• Above all, make it simpler to see and trade the waves.
• And reduce the time needed to learn master wave analysis.

How To Use Moving Averages To Simplify Wave Analysis?

Moving averages are a great tool to identify the wave patterns in a rule-based method. This should make it quicker and simpler for traders to identify the correct waves.

Elliott waves and moving averages are a useful combination for a moving average EW strategy.

It works simply by analyzing a) price versus the moving averages and b) the short-term MAs versus the long-term MAs:

• For the short-term MAs let’s use the 21 EMA high and low.
• For the long-term MAs let’s use the 144 and 233 EMA close.
• Let’s review bullish 12345 waves and bearish ABC waves:
  
• Wave 1: 
  • Price was below the 21 EMAs but is breaking above the 21 EMAs
  • Price and 21 EMAs are below the 144 and 233 EMAs
  • Price can move up towards the 144 and 233 EMAs or even go through it
  • 144 ema often stays below the 233 ema
  • The angle of the 21 EMAs was down but now has a bullish angle
  • 21 ema zone could cross the 144 EMAs
• Wave 2:
  • Price breaks below the 21 EMAs
  • The angle of the 21 ema is bearish but often with a milder angle
  • Sometimes price action will use the 144 and 233 EMAs as a support
  • 21 ema crosses below the 144 ema for a short time

• Wave 3:
  • Price breaks above the 21 EMAs
  • Price stays away from the 21 EMAs for a substantial number of candles
  • Price breaks through the 144-233 EMAs if it was not broken before
  • 21 ema crosses above the 144 and 233 EMAs
  • Space between the 21 EMAs and 144 & 233 EMAs widens quickly
  • The steep bullish angle of the 21 EMAs
  • 144 ema crosses above the 233 EMA
  • Price can retrace back to the 21 EMAs but the 21EMAs act as a bouncing spot for an uptrend continuation.

• Wave 4:
  • Price could retrace either back to the 21 EMAs or even as far as the 144 ema.
  • The 144 ema is a bouncing spot for the price.
  • Price can make 2 breaks below the 21 EMAs, which creates a mild bearish angle with the 21 EMAs.
  • The 2nd break above the 21 EMAs could indicate the uptrend again.
  • Price tends to move around or close to the 21EMAs.
  • The space between the 21 EMAs and 144 & 233EMAs narrows.

• Wave 5:
  • Price moves away from the 21EMAs.
  • But price action usually moves less far than wave 3.
  • There are fewer candles that are away from the 21 EMAs.
  • The angle of the 21 EMAs is bullish but has a weaker angle.
  • Price respects the 21 EMAs as support but price slows down.
  • Divergence patterns become visible.

• Wave A:
  • Price retraces back to the 21 EMAs or breaks below the 21EMAs for a larger correction.
  • Price can fall towards the 144 and 233 EMAs.
  • The angle of the 21 EMAs turns bearish.
  • The space between the 21 EMAs and 144 & 233 EMAs becomes narrow or even can disappear.
  • Sometimes price can break below the 144 & 233 EMAs and it can carry the 21 ema zone through it. Other times this happens in wave C.
• Wave B:
  • The uptrend seems to continue but price action is weak.
  • Price cannot break above the 21 EMAs or in other cases, the break is weak.
  • Price moves back quickly to the 21 EMAs.
  • The 21 EMAs have a flat angle.
  • There is a small space or no space between the 21 EMAs and 144 & 233 EMAs.
  • The 21EMAs become a resistance for the price.

• Wave C:
  • Price breaks below the 21 EMAs.
  • Price falls again towards the 144 and 233 EMAs.
  • Price can break below the 144 & 233 EMAs can carry the 21 ema zone through it if it’s a larger wave C.
  • The 21 ema can break below the 144 & 233EMAs.
  • The steep angle of the 21 EMAs

The same logic can be used for a downtrend. All of the rules mentioned above are inverted for bearish examples.

As you can see, moving averages are useful for the Elliott Waves. Traders can understand better how moving averages work but also complete more accurate EW analysis with moving averages.

What Did We Learn From This Moving Average And Elliott Wave Article?

As you can see, using the moving averages in conjunction with the waves makes it simpler and quicker to analyze:

• What is the Elliott Wave theory plus its pros and cons.
• What are motive waves and corrective waves?
• How to use 12345 and ABC for motive and corrective waves.
• How to use moving averages to determine waves 1 to 5 and A to C.

Detailed Info on Using Moving Averages for Elliott Waves

Which Indicator Works Best With The Moving Average?

Moving averages work well with trend lines, oscillators, bands, the Fibonacci tool, price patterns, and Elliott Waves. But moving averages also work very well with other moving averages. They are a great tool to identify the wave patterns in a rule-based method. This should make it quicker and simpler for traders to identify the correct waves. Elliott waves and moving averages are a useful combination for a moving average EW strategy and an EW analysis with moving averages is also easier to understand. It works simply by analyzing a) price versus the moving averages and b) the short-term MAs versus the long-term MAs. For the short-term MAs, traders could use the 21 EMA high and low for instance For the long-term MAs traders could use the 144 and 233 EMA close for instance.

How Do You Use Elliott Wave Theory?

Traders can use the Elliott Wave theory for understanding the underlying price patterns and market psychology to make more accurate price forecasts. The Elliott Wave theory offers rules and guidelines on how to analyze price movement that support the analysis and predictions. They also offer traders a way to find and use confirmation and invalidation levels and patterns to know if their analysis is working as expected. With the help of the Elliott Wave rules and guidelines, traders can get guidance from past examples and improve their ability to analyze waves correctly.

• There are 3 rules with a long list of guidelines. Let’s summarize the 3 main rules as the guidelines are outside of the scope of today’s article:
• Rule 1: wave 3 may never be the shortest.
• Rule 2: wave 2 may not break the starting point of wave 1.
• Rule 3: wave 4 may not enter the same price zone as wave 1.

Which Time Frame Is Best For Elliott Wave?

Traders can understand the price charts and understand the ‘story’ of price in more detail. They can also understand how the story is developing on multiple time frames and how those time frames connect. Elliott Waves can be used on all time frames but lower time frames are more difficult. Anything below the 1-hour chart can lead to more errors. Especially when beginners try to use waves on lower time frames. The 1 and 4-hour charts are usually easier to read plus offer lots of flexibility. The daily chart offers clarity but is slower in their price movement.

How Do You Count Elliott Waves Like A Pro?

Learning to trade the Elliott Waves usually requires a lot of experience. But traders can use the methods mentioned in this article to master wave trading simply by using the moving averages. The moving averages make the Elliott Wave analysis less subjective and make it more concrete and tangible. This makes it easier for traders to find the Elliott Waves on the price charts and use it for their trading decisions. Moving averages are therefore a useful tool for spotting and understanding the Elliott Waves. The moving averages help traders create more accurate EW analysis with a simple and quick approach.